Worldwide natural gas demand is expected to rise 1.4% per year during 2016-40 with China and the Middle East leading the way in gas demand growth, a study released by the French international association for gas, Cedigaz, said Tuesday.
To remind, Cedigaz said last year that global gas demand would rise 1.6% per year during 2014-35 and this growth in absolute terms would outstrip that of all other energy sources.
“A stronger push for renewables and energy efficiency drives gas demand growth down to 1.2%/year over 2025-2040, compared to 1.8%/year over 2016-2025,” Cedigaz said in its newest medium and long-term gas outlook report.
China and the Middle East will lead the way in gas demand growth, accounting for respectively 31% and 25% of the incremental volume over the projection period, the report said.
Outside China, the largest growths in gas demand are recorded in India (+ 120 bcm), Iran (+ 119 bcm), the US (+ 119 bcm) and Saudi Arabia (+ 84 bcm).
The share of LNG in net interregional flows will progress from 40% in 2016 to 55% in 2040 while nterregional LNG trade will grow by more than 4%/year, the report says.
China and India are expected to together contribute more than 40% of the growth in international LNG imports.
Qatar is expected to remain the top LNG exporter, accounting for 21% of global LNG supply in 2040, closely followed by the US (19%), while Australia keeps a 17% market share.
According to the report, higher than previously expected Asian LNG demand, propelled by China, and delays in the second wave of LNG liquefaction projects bring a risk of tighter markets as early as 2022.
Cedigaz estimates that 56 Mt of new LNG capacity, in addition to current operating and post FID projects, is required to meet international LNG demand in 2025.
The supply gap is expected to grow to 200 Mt in 2040, the report said.