Annual Energy Perspectives report outlining the analysis of macroeconomic and energy market developments toward 2040 has been published by Statoil.
The report analyses three different scenarios for the development from 2011 to 2040, to illustrate the major uncertainties in modelling long-term developments:
- The Reference scenario, where already decided energy and climate policies, as well as ambitions and targets, and our forecasts on likely developments in policy measures are the starting point for the modelling;
- The Low Carbon scenario, where more comprehensive energy and climate policies are applied to incentivize a more rapid increase in energy efficiency, green growth and technology development;
- The Policy Paralysis scenario, where protectionism and geopolitical rivalry lead to lower growth, a less green energy mix and lower energy efficiency.
The analysis confirms the results presented by the IEA; that within a sustainable energy system, there is still a strong need for oil and gas in the energy mix over the coming decades.
Natural gas demand grows in all scenarios
Due to its availability, flexibility and environmentally friendly characteristics compared to coal, natural gas is likely to become an increasingly important fuel in the decades to come. In the Reference scenario natural gas demand is forecast to grow faster than total energy demand, by 1.4% per year on average until 2040. In the Low Carbon scenario, the gas share of total primary energy demand grows from 21% to 24%. In the Policy Paralysis scenario the global market share for natural gas is relatively stable.
The supply potential of shale gas continues to surprise, both in terms of volumes and marginal costs. Environmental policies are expected to help improving the competitiveness of gas.
LNG World News Staff, June 13, 2014; Image: Statoil